Eclectic Floridian: Iranians Aren't Stupid

Friday, June 02, 2006

Iranians Aren't Stupid

I should preface these remarks with the statement that Iran's Amadinejad's remarks about Israel and the holocaust are ridiculous on their face.

But, I suspect, that he and his government are playing a very well-thought-out strategy.

That strategy, in short is: Make best use of your oil resources while they last. Meanwhile, position yourself to be ahead of the "no-more-oil curve."

Most of us know the Iranians are very intelligent, well-educated, proud people, as are we. As you read this, keep that in mind.

At The Moderate Voice I had a bit of an exchange in the comments section about the "Olive Branch" extended to Iran by Ms. Rice. This discussion seems to illustrate the arguments over the Iran Nuclear program fairly well.

My original comment was:
Let me get this straight:
Iran asserts it's right to use it's resources for generation of nuclear power, thus positioning itself for the day their oil reserves are gone.

Iran raises the suspicions of the US/EU/Russians/Chinese by refusing IAEA verification of peaceful intent.

The US/EU/Russians/Chinese offer a plan to stop sanctions if Iran will stop it's nuclear program before negotiations about that very issue even begin.

Iran refuses to cede it's negotiating leverage before negotiations begin.

The US/EU/Russians/Chinese conclude Iran's intentions are bad and begins sanctions (at least).
Wouldn't a "diplomatic" proposition, at least, offer a semblence of negotiable points instead of a bullying requirement.

For example, an honest diplomatic approach, might offer Iran the acceptance of it's right to exploit it's own resources (uranium) if it accepted IAEA verification of peaceful use.

Even if Iran's intentions are malignant, and it gets the bomb in 10 years, the US alone would still be in possession of 11,000 times that many (deliverable) warheads.
Another commenter (who's only link is an email address I don't feel I should post) took my points one by one (headed in bold) after which I reply:

Says Iran conducts "a secret enrichement [sic] program."

Wrong! There's nothing secret about the Iranian enrichment program. They have been open about it since breaking the IAEA seals. It's what's required for peaceful, nuclear-generated electricity. They've stated that it's their right to do it for peaceful means.

Says Iran has engaged in "3 years of defiance, stonewalling, and deception during negotiations with the EU3."

Wrong! For 3 years Russia/China have been saying that Iran should stop enriching their own resources and pay Russia/China to do it instead. Meanwhile, for 3 years the US/EU have been screaming for them to stop finding the best use of their own resources.

Says Iran must "SUSPEND their ENRICHMENT program. They dont have to suspend their nuclear program, which isnt the same thing."

Wrong! If you can't enrich uranium, even your own, you HAVE no nuclear program, peaceful or otherwise.
The responder then goes on to say:
"Iran refuses to cede it's negotiating leverage before negotiations begin. "

By suspending actions at the UNSC to move toward sanctions, we suspend OUR negotiating leverage. In turn, they must suspend theres [sic]. Otherwise they can drag negotiations out, deferring sanctions, while moving closer to a bomb.

"The US/EU/Russians/Chinese conclude Iran's intentions are bad and begins sanctions (at least). "

If they wont SUSPEND enrichment, thats a pretty logical conclusion.
My reply was:
Have you considered the possibility that Iran refused IAEA inspections as a negotiating "strawman?"

Isn't it possible that they are willing to accept IAEA inspections in return for the right to best use of their own resources?

We, the west, have no right to deny them best use of their own resources ... and they resent that. Thus, they throw out the "strawman" knowing they'll give it up ... What Iranian would think the international community was too stupid to see the opening for negotiation.

I am convinced the Iranians will accept IAEA verification in return for freedom to use their national resources for peaceful purposes ... if only the diplomats would act like diplomats rather than Texans.
In light of the approach of US/EU/Russia/China, here's an idea to use the same approach in your everyday life!
Carrot-and-Stick your employer (heh-heh, a pun) when raise time comes around:

Tell him to give you a 20% raise or you won't be willing to talk about your raise.

Yeah! That'll work ... er ... won't it?
UPDATE: FYI, per Wikipedia,
naturally occurring uranium is composed of three major isotopes, 238U, 235U, and 234U, with 238U being the most abundant (99.3% natural abundance) ... To be considered "enriched" the 235U fraction has to be increased ... (typically to levels from 3% to 7%).

The point here is, 238U is not fissible, it must be enriched to get a larger percentage of 235U. Therefore, without enrichment of percentage of 235U, no one can have nuclear power, peaceful or otherwise.


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